Cape & Islands News

What's wrong with the CNC poll or survey?

Cape Wind questions Community Newspaper Company poll
Survey not conducted following normal procedures

his online newspaper's articles mentioning the recent survey conducted by the Community Newspaper Company (The Cape Codder, Register, Oracle and Upper Cape Codder) which received 1,100 responses out of the cape's quarter million resident population. That computes to about half of one percent.

The survey has been referred to here as a "poll", which implied that there were the normal polling criteria in effect, criteria like those used by Gallop Poll and other professionals.

They were not, and Cape Wind Associates of Yarmouth have posted a rebuttal on their web site which we reprint below. 

20 questions journalists should ask about "polls" 

The National Council on Public Polls describes a professional poll thus; Polls provide the best direct source of information about public opinion. They are valuable tools for journalists and can serve as the basis for accurate, informative news stories. For the journalist looking at a set of poll numbers, here are the 20 questions to ask the pollster before reporting any results. This publication is designed to help working journalists do a thorough, professional job covering polls. It is not a primer on how to conduct a public opinion survey.

The only polls that should be reported are "scientific" polls. A number of the questions here will help you decide whether or not a poll is a "scientific" one worthy of coverage – or an unscientific survey without value.

Unscientific pseudo-polls are widespread and sometimes entertaining, but they never provide the kind of information that belongs in a serious report. Examples include 900-number call-in polls, man-on-the-street surveys, many Internet polls, shopping mall polls, and even the classic toilet tissue poll featuring pictures of the candidates on each roll.

One major distinguishing difference between scientific and unscientific polls is who picks the respondents for the survey. In a scientific poll, the pollster identifies and seeks out the people to be interviewed. In an unscientific poll, the respondents usually "volunteer" their opinions, selecting themselves for the poll. 

Cape Wind response 

The Cape Codder newspaper reports the results of their online poll on Cape Wind that found a majority of local online participants opposed, as well as a reporter's survey of beachgoers at Craigville Beach that found most in support - to their credit, the Cape Codder acknowledges in these articles that neither survey was scientific. 

Last year, an independent scientific survey of public opinion on the Cape and Islands on Cape Wind, commissioned by the Cape Cod Times and WCAI / WNAN, found an even split in public opinion.  Earlier this year, the Civil Society Institute commissioned an independent scientific survey of public opinion on Cape Wind that found 81% support in the State of Massachusetts and their sub-sample of Cape and Islands residents also found more support than opposition...

Perhaps the best comment about polls around here came from Len Stewart;
      "Here's what I've learned about surveys on Cape Cod generally.  1. Mail out surveys, even using scrupulously random sampling, are uneven in their returns. People with regular, long-term addresses, with the time and inclination to respond to a poll, return their "ballots". Those in seasonal housing, or without telephones (which is where the random sample often comes from), or without the time or inclination to fill out a survey, don't return them.  So, while a truly random sample going out may reflect the demographics of the Cape, the returns coming back do not.  Same with phone surveys.  On the Cape, this means an oversample of white retirees with sufficient family income -- an important group, but not statistically representative of our whole population.  You have to go after the other demographics with intent in order to statistically fill out your survey in order to be accurate.  Certainly, surveys where anyone is invited to chime in: webpolls, call-in polls, write in polls, etc., are really more of a focus group. "

Read rest of the the Cape Wind response here, and comment below.