Sea Street

The "but" factor

Three Hundred was the title of a recent movie about a battle between the ancient Spartans and Persians.  The Persian King landed on Grecian shores with eighty thousand troops to proceed inland and reach his objective.  It was necessary to march upon a narrow cliffside road.  The Spartans blocked the way with only three hundred men and after two days of savage fighting they still held the pass BUT..... the Persians found a secret passage behind the cliffs which allowed them to encircle the Greeks.  To coin a Greek word, it was a catastrophe; a catastrophe that eventually led to the burning of Athens. 

Several hundred years later the last survivors of the Kingdom of Judah barricaded themselves atop the fortress of Masada.  It was a place well stocked with food and water high atop a desert plateau.  The nine hundred plus Jews who defended it thought it could not be overrun BUT..... the Romans built an earthworks as high as Masada and dropped a bridge across the chasm.  The Jews, knowing they were doomed, committed suicide.  Only one survivor, the historian, Flavius Josephus lived to tell their story.

There are many times in history that the BUT FACTOR has put an end to widely held presumptions.  In relatively recent times, Napoleon and Wellington stood at the Battle of Waterloo.  Napoleon was the better known of the two men, a man with Godlike military credentials.  It was widely presumed that the French would win the day BUT..... on the day of the battle, Napoleon came down with the flu and the day turned disasterous for the French.

And so it has been into modern times. William Jefferson Clinton was presumed to be the best president in the post-war years.  The economy was booming as it had never boomed before.  The country was at peace and the Yuppie culture was riding high on waves of prosperity BUT..... W. J. Clinton (a man who could have had most women in Washington) could not pass up a BJ from an intern in the oval office.  He was not thinking of his wife, his daughter or the country and he failed all three; thus pulling the rug out from under Al Gore and opening the door to the disasters of the last six years. 

And now, alas, we have his spouse, Hillary Rodham Clinton, a woman who has stood behind him with love?...... and calculation.  Until recently it was widely presumed that she would be the nominee of the Democratic Party in 2008 BUT..... along came Barak Obama, a young man with many fine qualities, a young man who may make a good President in fourteen years or so when he has more experience (more about Obama in a future blog).  BUT..... never overestimate the judgement of American voters, who have made him a serious threat to Hillary.  He has now raised more money than Hillary and has been able to "woo" some of her backers to his side.  Therefore, Hillary's BUT FACTOR is full blown and it raises some serious questions: 

1. Why doesn't she apologize or recant her vote for the illegal Iraq invasion.  She was certainly for the invasion as evidenced in a speech she gave on October 10, 2002 in which she parroted the Bush administration's line referring to "weapons of mass destruction" and Saddam's infamy.  Now she has the lives, the blood and the maiming of countless Americans and Iraqi's on her head. 
   
2. If in the unlikely event that she is elected president, to what extent will Bill Clinton influence her.  Would he end up being the defacto president the way that George Wallace ran Alabama when his wife was Governor?  It goes without saying that Bill Clinton has many political and intellectual skills BUT..... he also has baggage-lots of it.  How does that work with Hillary as president? 
   
3. The Likeability Factor.  In my Desilu days, I asked Danny Thomas, "What is the most important factor in show business?"  He removed his cigar, looked me straight in the eye and said, "My boy, people either like you or they don't like you." 

This is Hillary's problem isn't it?  Perhaps Hillary should follow the lead of Segolene Royal, a candidate for the presidency of France.  Ms. Royal campaigns in dresses, projecting a soft, loving image to French voters.  She has even posed in a bikini;  of course, we don't want to see Hillary in a bikini do we?  But I have come to the conclusion that nothing would benefit Hillary Clinton so much as a diet.  Let's face it; in addition to all the other BUT FACTORS, she also has a big BUTT FACTOR.