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Cape due for Category 3 hurricane; Dean misses tourism areas
Storm warning
Active hurricane cycle predicted to generate Category 3 vortex that could blast Cape Cod and New England area
Hurricane Bob hit Central and Eastern Massachusetts in mid-August 1991 with winds measured at more than 100 miles per hour on Cape Cod, where a storm surge 9.5 feet above the normal tide level at Buzzard’s Bay was observed.
“Bob was a very underrated hurricane”
Even as the Southwest was expected to feel the effects today of Hurricane Dean, which hit Mexico yesterday with top winds of 165 miles per hour, Massachusetts emergency planners and meteorologists hope people have good memories.
The last time Central Massachusetts was hit by a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 111 miles per hour or greater on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale was late August 1954, when Hurricane Carol roared through eastern Connecticut and Rhode Island. Several businesses in Galilee, R.I., have pictures on their walls showing swamped shore roads and homes — visual testimony to the damage Carol wrought. About two weeks later, a weakening Category 3 Hurricane Edna lashed Cape Cod before coming ashore near Eastport, Maine, with sustained winds of nearly 100 miles per hour... Telegram.
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Hurricane Dean Misses Tourist Spots and Weakens
Drops from category 5 to 1
CHETUMAL, Mexico - Hurricane Dean hammered Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula with blistering winds and heavy rain on Tuesday, missing the prime tourist spots of the Mayan Riviera but causing damage in Chetumal, the state capital, before being downgraded to Category 1 from Category 5. Roofs were ripped off homes, streets were flooded, power lines downed and trees snapped in two as Dean, the ninth-strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic, with winds in excess of 165 miles per hour, passed overhead.
Although the storm crossed the Yucatán Peninsula by midafternoon, the threat was far from over for Mexico. Hurricane Dean was in the southern waters of the Gulf of Mexico, where vast offshore oil fields produce most of the nation’s petroleum. Dean had 80-mile-per-hour winds late Tuesday night, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said, and was expected to hit Mexico’s gulf coast, somewhere north of Veracruz, on Wednesday afternoon... NY Times.
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They may or may not be right, but the fact is that they've been predicting killer hurricanes for the Cape that never materialized for over 15 years. No one is paying much attention anymore--it's like the boy who cried "Wolf!"
In the meanwhile, the avaricous insurance industry plugs these predictions into their computer model forecasts (with, I'm sure, an extra screwing factor or two)and jacks up our rates without having to pay out--resulting in truly WINDFALL PROFITS for them.
The real threat is less out-of-control spiral windstorms and more out-of-control insurance companies who are screwing us royally.
There is no such thing as "being due" for a hurricane.
Mother Nature does not say to herself, "Hmmm, For 2007, I think I'll give new Orleans a pass and let up on the Outer Banks and whack the Cape this year --they're due."
This anthropomorphizing of natural processes stems from Yankee/Puritan guilt over not suffering enough.
We comparatively affluent Cape Codders may glide unscathed through yet another season while poor New Orleans could again get beaten like a dead horse--there's no morality or justice in the weather.
It's GIGO (garbage in, garbage out) for most computer forecasting models. The algorithm can be written by any weasel to favor anything--and it usually favors the rich and powerful, like insurance company CEOs, not us poor homeowners.
But here are some true facts: In the nine years I've been here, I've paid out in homeowners' insurance (thousands + thousands + thousands, increasing each year); my claims were (0+0+0).
You do the math. Where does my money go? Into a fur coat for the CEO's mistress? Reminds me of that 1940s song (slightly paraphrased), "That's where my money goes, to buy his bimbo clothes..."
Instead of preparing for another hurricane, we should be preparing for another "bend over folks and open wide"
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