Boston Bureau

Kennedy School Plays War Game over Oil

Reverend Wright versus Kennedy School of Government

Men in dark suits (and two women) gather to play War Games at Harvard yesterday. That's former Secretary of the Treasury Robert Rubin gesturing as the oil price per barrel reaches $140 and the price per gallon $4.55. Above, from left: Joe Lockhart (portraying Counselor to President), Meghan O'Sullivan (as Sec.of State), Lawrence Summers (as Sec. of Treas.), Robert Rubin (as National Security Advisor), Ashton Carter (as Sec. of Defense), Philip Sharp (as Sec. of Energy), and Joan Dempsey (as National Intelligence Director).    Photo by Martha Stewart

Wright is entertaining; Harvard is theatrically brain-scratching

By Libby Hughes, Cape Cod Today's Boston Bureau

While Reverend Wright was seizing center stage at the National Press Club in D.C. on Monday April 28 and stealing the spotlight from all three presidential candidates, Harvard's Kennedy School of Government was playing a War Game, called "Oil Shockwave" on Monday evening. The Reverend was entertaining, but the Harvard Forum theatrics were sophisticated and brain-scratching.

A fictional cabinet meeting

Under the sponsorship of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard's Forum was playing to an audience of mostly males in dark suits and ties. There were a few women and a handful of students scattered here and there, but a crowded press riser.

The setting was a simulated cabinet meeting of seven cabinet members with an hour and a half to report and recommend to the president on two crises. There were seven high-backed leather chairs behind the arc of joined desks. Behind them were three high-tech panels in orange and red, displaying a map of the world on each panel. Portraits of  the stars of the panel were rotating in the center panel.

The cast

The cast was star-studded, drawing upon members from Bill Clinton's cabinet, Bush appointees, and other luminaries from Harvard's Kennedy School and Belfer Center.

From left to right, here they are:

Joe Lockhart (former Spokesman for President Clinton) playing Counselor to the President

Meghan L. O'Sullivan (former Special Assistant in Security to President Bush) played Secretary of State

Lawrence H. Summers (former President of Harvard) played Secretary of the Treasury

Robert E. Rubin (former Treasury Secretary for Clinton) played National Security Advisor and moderator.

Ashton B. Carter (former Assistant Secretary of Defense) playing the Secretary of Defense.

Philip Sharp (former U.S Representative from Indiana) playing Secretary of Energy.

Joan Dempsey (former Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board for Bush) playing National Intelligence Director.

The first fictional crisis

There were two crises, reported by GNN (Global News Network) from video screens. They were both fictional. Off the coast of Turkey, there was an oil tanker hi-jacked and sunk by terrorists in the Bosporus Straits, which leads to Russia and Europe through the Black Sea. Another ship full of civilians was sunk also. The fictional cabinet has 90 minutes to discuss what they will report to the American president.

Exploring solutions

Robert Rubin, seated in the center, posed the questions to the six other cabinet members. Immediately, Ash Carter as Secretary of Defense gave a briefing, elaborating on the attack. He informed them that three million barrels of oil a day pass through the Bosporus. He calculated that it would take until 2010 to surface and reroute the tankers through the shallow waters. By January of 2009, he estimated that the cost of a barrel of oil would rise to $160.

Rubin asked the panel, "What do we do now? Do we dispatch troops or suggest conservation or consult the world and bring them with us?"

What do we do?

As Secretary of the Treasury, Larry Summers offered a slick and immediate response. "Let's not do anything stupid. We don't have to establish price controls, but we could use a bio-fuel strategy. What will happen if the price rises? By the way, I think the price will soar to $210 a barrel. We should quietly work with the Saudis for more production. But most of all, we should stay cool," he warned.

As Secretary of Energy, Phil Sharp advised, "Defer a decision and get ready. The Europeans will put restraints on right away."

Media reaction

Meghan O'Sullivan, playing the Secretary of State, said, "We have to consider the media's reaction and what the behavior will be in the Middle East. We need to determine our policy while making sure that domestic politics in Turkey do not get inflamed. We want to know what the embassies out of Brussels will say."

Carter jumped in, "What will our position be long-term with a chain of events. We need to act to secure other oil sources."

Summers says no price controls

Rubin suggested rationing. Summers rejected the idea of price controls. "It would be a big mistake by lowering prices and going into our reserves because people and traders will hoard. Let the prices go up-people will figure it out."

Global problem with global solutions

As a group, they decided that oil supplies are a global problem and require a global solution. All agreed that the president should not act quickly, but with caution. The one suggestion for conservation that they all rejected was to enforce the speed limit to 55 miles an hour. They also agreed that strong leadership was the key, giving the country and the world reassurance while consulting with the world about reserves.

Summers said, "Don't drop bombs. Higher taxes would reduce dependence."

Second fictional crisis

The next fictional crisis came from GNN, which reported that there was a terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia, attempting to overthrow the House of Saud. Rubin asked the group whether to act immediately or wait?

Let Saudis do it

Ash Carter suggested, "We would have to depend on the Saudi Army to secure the oil fields. Only as a last resort would the Saudis ask for our support."

O'Sullivan thought the president should talk with King Abdullah before taking action.

Summers jumped in, "Don't evacuate Americans right away. Some want to stay. It's harder if we evacuate. If we show that we are "for" the Saudis that also makes it harder. We have to be careful how to manage diplomacy."

Strong leadership

Lockhart said, "The president should look at his legacy and change his energy policy and explore other sources of energy. We have to get used to higher prices. The president has to get serious. We should advise the president of the gravity, but he must show flexibility and strong leadership. Let the president be the agent of change."

Questions

There were six questions and then the War and Oil game was over after two hours. Apparently there are six scenarios that are offered to professors to use in their college classrooms to make young people aware of our vulnerability and to do something through these virtual tour exercises. These scenarios were developed by Securing America's Future Energy (SAFE).

Over and out from the Forum.