Cape Politics

Run Christy Run

I was first surprised and then disappointed to learn that Christy Mihos was, and then was not running for the US Senate seat vacated by Ted Kennedy. Surprised that he would be so adept politically to shift to a more plausible race. Disappointed to learn that it was not true, and that he either stepped on his own candidacy for Governor or that he was manuevered to do so.

The case for the US Senate

Either way, a rookie mistake that does not bode well for the erstwhile candidate for Governor.  Christy should run for the Senate seat and give up his quixotic quest for Governor.

The special primaries for the open US Senate seat are only 90 days away.  Name recognition is paramount, even in a small Republican primary.  Only money is more imporant, because it can buy you the former. And then there is the competition within the party.

On the first count, Christy enjoys wide name recognition as a former candidate for office and for his ubiquitous namesake business, but also for his legendary battles with the state's former Governors and (Turnpike) agencies.

He also is able and willing to spend his own fortune to get elected.  He spent over $3 million of his own lunch money to run for governor 3 years ago. He's the only potential candidate for any office who can do that again. 

And there is the decided lack of enthusiam by any other Republican to run for a seat held by a liberal icon that will most likely end up staying in Democratic hands or butt if you will. Christy is about the only candidate that doesn't reek of Republican conservatism, read extremism. With Christy, there might actually be civil discourse between the candidates for the 5 weeks of the general campaign.

So what's the alternative?

Christy continues to run for Governor, in a party with regulars that have a strong dislike for him after he single handedly took Kerry (Muffy) Healy to the woodshed last time around as an Independent (spiteful) candidate in the Governor's race.

Republican candidate for Governor, Charlie Baker is not only a credible candidate for Governor, but also a loyal Republican, having faithfully served two Republican Governors and deliverd the health insurance industry to a third, making it possible for Mitt Romney to sign a landmark healthcare bill.

Charlie Baker has plenty of time to raise enough money and get enough name recognition to beat Christy in a head to head race one year from now.  Even though Christy is a businessman disguised as the everyman, he is still out of step with a very important constituency, environmentalists and renewable energy cohorts.

Cape Wind - The Issue

Christy is a well documented opponent to Cape Wind. He even finances the oppostion when he's not co-chairing the Alliance to Save the Sound (ASS).  But with over two-thirds of the Cape voters now in favor, and 85% of the states residents demanding the project, Christy is seriously out of step with the voters.  And due in part to his efforts, the issue won't go away in time for him to run for Governor in the wake of its aftermath. 

Even thougn we're not quite sure where Charlie Baker stands on the issue, he has not incurred the ire of the supporters of the project yet, and would still have to deal with the Democrat, Governor Patrick, on the issue during the general election. In other words, there still time for him to endorse the project.

But Christy has to live (and die) with his opposition. Except if he runs for the Senate. Because there, he has the cover from the previous seat holder, Ted Kennedy, to hide behind.  "See, even Ted Kennedy, the man I want to replace, was against it!"  " If you could keep him in office despite his opposition to Cape Wind, why not give me the same benefit of the doubt. "

In truth, Senator Kennedy could not stop Cape Wind. Neither can Christy. So it becomes a non- issue on the Senate campaign.  Not so in the Governor's race.

So you see, Christy would have a much easier time of it running for US Senate. Probably still could not get elected,  but at least he would win the Republican primary, and in one brief shining moment, reclaim his status and position in the Republican party.