Nor'easter Blues

Hurricane Watch In Effect For Cape Cod

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for all of Cape Cod and the Islands, as Hurricane Earl closes in on us.

These watches should be updated to warnings (storm conditions imminent within 24 hours) by the time the evening news comes on, or shortly afterwards.

The storm is a Category 4 storm, with winds of 145 mph. A hurricane hunter plane clocked a 199 mph gust yesterday. It should get to us by 6 PM Friday, and the worst should be over by 6 AM Saturday (although big waves and riptides will continue after the storm). It should weaken to a Category 2 when it gets to us, although the difference is basically "You get run over by a F-150 instead of a Mack truck."

Earl is 500 miles wide. Hurricane force winds extend 90 miles from the center, and tropical storm winds extend 230 miles out from the eye. Those numbers should decrease as the storm nears us, as any weakening should make the storm more compact.

Right now, the numbers are looking like 5 inches of rain (Accuweather is forecasting 2.9 inches for Buzzards Bay, but they tend to lowball their estimates), 30-90 mph winds (worse as you head out to the east), a 2 foot storm surge, moderate to major coastal flooding, trees down, widespread power outages, and general mayhem and malfeasance.

Cape Cod Hurricane Tides, as best as I can tell... keep in mind, we're a week from a new moon, and tide heights are rising every day.... 7:18 PM in Barnstable Harbor/Cape Cod Bay, 7:05 PM at the east end of the Cape Cod Canal, 8:05 PM at Chatham, Falmouth Heights at 6:51 PM, Nauset/Outer beaches at 7:45 PM, Hyannis Port at 8:10 PM, Cotuit at 8:24 PM, Wychmere Harbor, 7:59 PM, Stage Harbor 7:53 PM, Dennis Port at 8:10 PM, and South Yarmouth/Bass River at 8:53 PM.

The eye of the storm stands a near-certain chance of going offshore, a good chance of passing over Nantucket, and a slight chance of coming ashore at Chatham. Keep in mind, this storm could also wiggle offshore, giving us nothing serious.

The Sagamore and Bourne Bridges will be closed to going-onto-Cape traffic in the event that the evacuation order is issued. 90 state police officers are presently assigned to traffic on the approach routes to steer traffic to the safer spots and just generally keep 'em movin'.

The bridges will be closed once the wind hits 70 mph. Police will close Route 6 and 28's approach to the bridges. I know that Route 28 will be closed at the Otis rotary, and Route 6 will be stopped at Exit 2. If you are evacuating and the bridges close before you get off Cape Cod, you'll be sent to the Massachusetts Military reservation.

This will be problematic, as the Friday night commute will be coming to an end at that point. Make an extreme effort to get out of work early if you work a 9-5 job on the mainland. If you work in Boston til 5, and Earl turns out to be all that, you may not get home from work until Saturday afternoon.

In the event A) you live on the outer Cape/Islands and B) your kid has school Friday and C) you plan to flee... you may want to yank the kids out early. Barnstable schools have the day off, and Bourne has school on for Friday currently. Beyond that, call your local school for info.

Police will also control acess to the roads running along either side of the Canal... Sandwich Road, and the Scenic Highway. "Control access" = "will shut the roads down when they see fit." The best way I can see around that is to come down Bournedale Road and either a) proceed on foot or b) drive through the scrub forest that lines the Canal.

During Hurricane Bob, the gridlock at the bridges exceeded 10 miles, and horror stories like "It took me 4 hours to get from Falmouth to Wareham" were not uncommon.

If you prefer a Staycation sort of Evacuation, there are several shelters on Cape Cod for this sort of affair. Dennis-Yarmouth High School, Nauset High School, Cape Cod Tech in Yarmouth, Mashpee High School and Barnstable High School. The Massachusetts Military reservation can also be used as an emergency shelter. I have my people looking into where the Buzzards Bay/Wareham shelter is, and if pets will be allowed at any shelters.

State parks on Cape Cod are to be evacuated, so as to lower casualty/refugee totals. Shawme (Sandwich) and Nickerson (Brewster) State Parks have already closed, and Myles Standish should get cleared out, too. Outer beaches in Chatham (down to Monomoy) are closed at 11 AM today, due to high surf.

As far as sports go, you have a 70% chance of Earl killing the Red Sox game Friday night. If Earl's rain isn't in Boston by game-time, they may try to sneak 6 innings in before the storm's fringes soak the Fenway Faithful.

 We'll be back in a few hours to give you some more info. Keep your head up, Cape Cod.