Against the Wind

Answers to some of Cape Wind's Pesky and Misleading Promises

Magical interviews science editor and writer Eric Rosenbloom for answer to some of Cape Wind's pesky and misleading promises.

ME: When asked how much electricity Cape Wind will provide Cape Wind's response is:

"Cape Wind will be rated to produce up to 468 megawatts of wind power as each wind turbine will produce up to 3.6 megawatts. Maximum expected production will be 454 megawatts. Average expected production will be 170 megawatts which is almost 75% of the 230 megawatt average electricity demand for Cape Cod and the Islands of Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket."

ER:  "It is all based on the misrepresentation of 'average' as 'typical'. (Not to mention the assumption that the turbines will work at all -- the record for offshore facilities is not good.)

Because generation falls off eightfold for every halving of the wind speed, production at or above the average rate is seen only about a third of the time, so it is obviously impossible for the turbines to provide 75% of the Cape's electricity. Further, the times when they are producing will coincide with actual demand only by chance.

And then, because the wind can drop again at any moment, the effect of significant production is only to ramp another plant down or switch it to standby, in which state it still burns fuel. Several studies have concluded that such use of those plants adds to cost and inefficiency.

ME: Cape Wind tells the citizens of Cape Cod and The Islands that:

*Power goes right into local grid, reducing need of 'dirty plants'" "The wind power will go into the Cape Cod grid at the Barnstable insertion point. But by the laws of physics, that power will be expended first on the Cape and Islands unless the wind farm is generating more than is consumed on the Cape and Islands."

ME: Would explain how the grid works and how it applies to Cape Wind's claims?

ER: Yes, the description of where the excitement of electrons goes is accurate. I find it useful to think of electricity like water. Picture the grid as a system of inspouts and outspigots where the pressure has to be kept constant. That is, as more spigots are opened more inspouts have to be opened. Or if some of the inspouts open only when the wind rises, other inspouts have to be closed when that happens so the pipes don't burst. The New England grid is actually called a "pool." All of the excitement can go anywhere in the pool, but if your spigot is close to an open inspout that's the stuff you're likely to get.

Now imagine that the pumps on most of the inspouts are powered by coal or natural gas fueled engines that need a while to warm up before the can start pumping. This is akin to most thermal electricity plants, which may need hours, days even, to get going. When the wind-powered pumps kick in, the fossil fueled pumps have to correspondingly stop. But since the wind-powered pumps may cut off again at any moment, it would be foolish to cut off the fossil fueled engines altogether. Instead, they keep burning their fuel so that they stay "warmed up."

In short, it is one thing to say that Cape Wind will provide electricity, thus displacing electricity from other sources. It is quite another to say that Cape Wind will cause those other sources to use less fuel. Thus they completely misrepresent the possibility of displace emissions, basing it on reduced generation but not on actual reduced fuel use.

ME: When asked How would Cape Wind impact electricity prices? Cape Wind replies:

"Cape Wind will help to stabilize and even reduce the price of electricity. Cape Wind will do this in 3 ways:

1) Cape Wind will reduce the clearing price for electricity in the New England spot market by reducing operations of the regions most expensive power plants, this will reduce electricity prices in New England by 25 million dollars per year 2) Cape Wind will reduce the implementation costs of the Renewable Portfolio Standard to Massachusetts electricity consumers by increasing the supply of renewable energy certificates. 3) Cape Wind will pursue long-term power contract(s) that will lock-in a fixed price for electricity for a term of ten or more years. This would provide electricity consumers purchasing Cape Wind energy with far greater electric Price stability and price certainty than is typically available.

"Cape Wind would like to sell most of its electricity in long term price contract(s) to the organizations that sell electricity to consumers on Cape Cod and the Islands of Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. In a competitive electric market place, consumers can choose their electric supplier. Cape Wind will provide consumers with superior value."

ER: Point 1 of the effect on electricity prices is pure wishful thinking. Cape Wind can fix a long-term competitive price because two-thirds of its capital costs are aid for by federal taxpayers. Note in point 3 that ten years "or more" is noted. The production tax credit applies for only ten years. The benefit of accelerated depreciation is used up in six.

Unfortunately, if utilities actually try to rely on such an intermittent and variable source, they will find themselves using the spot market more, paying the highest prices possible. *That's why Denmark has the highest electricity costs in Europe.

One way the wind developers get around that is to cut utilities in on some of the lucrative profits from "renewables certificates," which are "generated" in addition to actual energy. So point 2 is correct -- since RPS requirements also provide a way to buy yourself out of them, and that is big wind's main purpose, not providing energy but rather a means of not cutting emissions.

ME: Thank you Eric for your time, consideration and for setting the record straight.  It is most appreciated.

*In closing, I would like to add that not only do the citizens of Denmark pay the highest electricity prices in the world but Greenhouse gas emissions in Denmark rose 6.2% in 2003 (National Environmental Research Institute). 

The facts make the following additional Cape Wind claims down-right outrageous:

That equivalent amount of energy displaced by backing off fossil fueled generators will eliminate criteria pollutants in the New England region consisting of approximately 360 tons of particulate matter 2,400 tons of sulfur oxides, 800 tons of nitrogen oxides, and an astounding 1,000,000 tons of carbon dioxide, for every year of operation, and The reduction of criteria pollutants offset by wind power will statistically eliminate in the New England region approximately 12 to 15 premature deaths every year, 20 cases of bronchitis, 200 emergency room visits, 5,000 asthma attacks, and 35,000 cases of daily upper respiratory symptoms and other related afflictions according to an extrapolation of data in a recent Harvard School of Public Heath report on power plant emissions. The monetary value of these health effect reductions using the EPA valuation of a premature death and associated health care cost data from the Harvard report amount to savings of approximately $53 million dollars every year. The dramatic reduction of the offset in carbon dioxide will take a positive step in reducing climate change and the impact of rising sea levels and dramatic changes in global weather patterns, and The reduction in nitrogen oxides will abate the ozone air quality indicator for Barnstable County, currently the worst county in the commonwealth as well as in the Cape Cod National Seashore which is among the worst parks in the nation for ozone and sulfate air quality indicators  thus improving health, recreation, and visibility...

Talk about Snake Oil!