East of Boston

Week One NFL Picks

You could easily get your football betting analysis from someone on ESPN, but "free" gets you analysis from a Cape Cod nanny with a seminal gambling interest in the NFL.

With that said, we are pleased to announce the return of Ellen Smithee to handle football betting for this column thru the 2008 NFL season.

First.. this week's betting lines:

Thursday September 4th

Redskins (+4) @ Giants (-4)

 After the last Super Bowl, our household was so upset that I ended up fighting my boss, Stacey, ... who subsequently broke my pancreas. Not only do I want the Giants to lose, I want them all to become infected after a team-wide session with Herpes Harriet.

I wouldn't bet on it, though. I see the Giants being at least 11-5 this year... and 11-5 teams beat Washington.

NYG, 17-10

(Editor's Note: Elle meant to post this Wednesday, but something happened)

Sunday September 7th

Bengals (even) @ Ravens (even)

An aging Ravens team with a newbie quarterback. A Bengals team that should be pretty good, but instead has sucked the bag for 2 decades. That's the kind of game that bookies refuse to set a line for.

When this happens, I usually take the home team. They theoretically need only win by a .00001th of a point. There exists no play in football that will yield .00001th of a point, but a bettor should always be prepared for anything.

Ravens, 10-9

Jets (-3) @ Dolphins (+3)

Brett Favre vs the 1-15 team that coughed up their 4 or 5 best players. Japanese net fishermen treat dolphins better.

NY Jets, 27-9

Chiefs (+15.5) @ Patriots (-15.5)

Now, the temptation here is to bet the 18-1 team over the team thast looks like they could go 1-18 this season if the NFL let one really bad team into the playoffs for laughs.

What a serious gambler bets, however, is that 15.5 point spread. The Mafia puts that there like a nice fat worm for the big dumb bass that is the gambler. You should think a bit before you bite.

I wonder how long they keep Tom Brady in if they go up a few touchdowns. I'm curious as to how the questionable Patriot secondary handles Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez. I ponder the chances of KC getting a few meaningless (except to the gambler) scores after the issue is settled.

I'm even following the progress of Tropical Storm Hanna, which- should it come to us in any form- would arrive about Saturday/Sunday. The Colonel says 10% chance of some winds/rain, and he knows that stuff. Wind/rain slows down hypo passing attacks like New England's.

While you won't go broke saying "New England won't beat them by 30 points," I did lose a lot of money last season while betting along that mindset. I may do it again this year, but not this week.

Pats, 35-10

Texans (+7) @ Steelers (-7)

Houston has a nice front 7, but a terrible secondary. Pitty should beat them like a parent's car.

Pittsburgh, 24-13

Jaguars (-2.5) @ Titans (+2.5)

Tennessee seems to win a lot of games that they shouldn't, while Jax is poised to become a conference power. This one could go either way, but I'll take Jack and that puny spread.

Jax, 18-14

Lions (-1) @ Falcons (+1)

Matty Ice from BC is starting for Atlanta, and the Lions suck... but they don't suck badly enough to lose to a downward-spiraling Falcons team.

Detroit, 17-13

Seahawks (+2) @ Bills (-2)

Don't believe that spread... Buffy is a 7-9 season waiting to happen, and 7-9 seasons are full of losses like the one I'm betting on them suffering this weekend.

Sea Town, 24-13

Buccaneers (+3.5) @ Saints (-3.5)

Me loves my Saints, and I'm rooting (and betting) on a post-apocalyptic, point-spread-whipping Saints win.

Chocolate City, 27-15

Rams (+6.5) @ Eagles (-6.5)

Philly should stomp the Rams like one of those burning doggie bags you leave on someone's doorstep on Halloween... which isn't that far away, folks.  :-(

Cowboys (-3) @ Browns (+3)

Cleveland was lucky to go 10-6 last year, while Dallas was unlucky not to be in that Super bowl against us last year.

Dallas, 28-17

Panthers (+8.5) @ Chargers (-8.5)

You can't spell "beat the pants off her" without "Panthers."

San Dee, 21-10

Cardinals (-3.5) @ 49ers (+3.5)

The bad part about playing for Arizona is that you go 7-9 every year. The good part is that it's easy to drive over the border after a loss and beat Mexicans. They'll beat the Niners, but the spread will beat them.

Zona, 18-16

Bears (+9) @ Colts (-9)

I'd bite at a 90 point spread for this one, let alone that 9 point gimme. 

Colts, 34-7

Monday September 8th

Vikings (+3) @ Packers (-3)

 The Vikings have like 99% of a great team already, but that 1% they're missing is that quarterback guy who ya kinda need to beat even mid-level teams. Adrian peterson is always a threat to bust a 250 yard game, though... so we'll bet like that.

GB, 21-20

Broncos (-2) @ Raiders (+2)

 The Mafia must know something that I don't, because there's no way on God's green earth that the Raiders stay within a dime of Denver.

Bronks, 21-7