Massachusetts Democrant

Zeus Wants Me to Run and More Ramblings

In attempting to repair her image from the internal GOP pounding now, our favorite winking governor, Sarah Palin spoke about her political future. 

"I'm like, OK, God, if there is an open door for me somewhere, this is what I always pray, I'm like, don't let me miss the open door. Show me where the open door is.

Sort of like an ultra-conservative, Blues Brothers, "we're on a mission from Gahd" kind of thing. Now before you all get yourselves bunched up, there is nothing wrong with a person's personal and private choices around religion. I'm pretty sure running for president is not on The Big Guy's agenda, whatever One you pray to.

Kerry Healey was on Jim Braude's show last night on NECN and indicated that she has already seen emails showing the war within for where the GOP goes from here. You have one side that seeks a moderate approach, another that thinks the McCain ticket was already moderate and that the Gop should veer hard right. Healey favored the former and from a success standpoint in this state, she is correct. On the national level, I'm not sure the GOP has any significant moderate leaders. They may be in the bind of having candidates that can win primaries by appealing to the right, but then have trouble in the election.

The Boston Herald reported that some Republicans on Beacon Hill want to have Jeff Perry be Minority Leader, replacing Brad Jones. That caucus will be held in January, and the 16 remaining GOP members of the House can probably caucus in a Burger King community room.

The state GOP needs to do some serious self-examination. It is good for there to be competition.  But you all really need to figure out how things have gotten to the point they have. Don Howell couldn't win his own town while losing his bid better than 2-1. People need a really good reason to change, it's the same old story. Folks don't like "those people up in Boston", but are happy with their own rep. Same with Congress.

You see, I do want the Dems to be shaken up a bit. How "leadership" works on Beacon Hill is some world apart from reality also. The slow crumble around Sal DiMasi will still not change the culture there. The change has to come up from the Democratic grassroots. I'm sick of it, my fellow Democrats should be also.

And I'm calling time up for Dianne Wilkerson who announced about a week ago she would resign as soon as possible. Best wishes to Sonia Chang-Diaz, the new state senator from that district.

Speaking of Jeff Perry, the Democrats down here have it all wrong when it comes to running someone against him. You need someone who is willing to run TWICE. First time is in the non-presidential year to get your name out there, and then continuing on to the next election in the presidential year, when turnout is higher and more favorable to Dems. I mentioned before, Obama won the town of Sandwich, so you never know.

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The Post-Election Rant

Now the hard part begins, huh?

Whether you supported Obama or not, I hope everyone appreciates the history of what happened Tuesday night. The same people that celebrated in the streets MUST be engaged in the process, whether it is in their towns, state or wherever. Certainly the world looks at us differently now.

With today's economic summit, the Obama transition is looking more like it will be a shadow government, hitting the ground running on 1/20/09. Given the crises to deal with, that is a good thing. If you haven't seen, there is a transition website change.gov, up and running.

Before any Democrat gets too cocky, please remember that it was in this very decade that the GOP machine looked like it had rendered the Dems out of the picture. These things run in cycles, folks.

OK, except in Massachusetts where the GOP lost even more ground. Howell and Beatty didn't even win their own town.

McCain's concession was gracious and one hopes that perhaps since his presidential aspirations are gone, he will go back to being John McCain again.

And just for entertainment purposes, I hope Sarah Palin stays Sarah Palin. Not even the end of the week and the number of stories that have popped to the surface are hysterical. Mind you, as Campbell Brown on CNN so accurately refrained to the GOP people trashing her... YOU picked her! YOU told us she was capable of being a heartbeat away!

While Kerry did not do as well on the Cape as he did in the rest of the state, he did virtually the same as he did down here when running for president. In 2004, he got 55.8% on the Cape, this year, 55.3%. Obama did slightly better than Kerry did in 2004, getting 57.4% of the vote. McCain did about the same worse, compared to Bush '04, as Obama did better. Of the 24 towns on the Cape and Islands, Obama outperformed Kerry '04 in 19 of them.

LOTS of ticket splitters in Sandwich, as Jeff Perry rang up 8504 votes there, compared to 5928 for McCain (and 6111 for Obama).

I stood at the polls most of the day, holding signs, kibbitzing, enjoying the unseasonably warm air we had. My favorite and proudest moment was when my youngest daughter came by, when her mom stopped in to vote. My daughter had a handmade sign she had created asking people to vote Yes on Question 3. She ended up spending a couple hours out there, holding her sign and one of the more printed signs. She even took an Obama sign for a bit. She was pretty happy when her side of the issue prevailed. Her dad, the grizzled veteran of these things warned her, "Enjoy this, it doesn't always turn out that way for you."

No matter what side you are on, staying engaged is what should be expected of us as citizens.

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Fired Up, Ready To Go

Before anything, condolences to Senator Obama and family, as his grandmother passed away on Monday morning in Hawaii.

A large and enthusiastic crowd greeted John Kerry and Bill Delahunt at the Sheraton Four Points in Hyannis, on the eve of the historic 2008 vote. In addition to noting the critical economic and international issues, Kerry brought up this quote that reminds people of the historic significance of the potential Obama victory:

"Rosa sat so Martin could walk. Martin walked so Obama could run. Obama ran so our children could fly."

And while Democrats are poised to increase their numbers in the House and Senate, comes the serious responsibility of governing. Both domestically and overseas, challenges await that threaten our security today and that of our children in the future.

The likelihood of polling being dramatically wrong is reduced by the number of people whom took advantage of early voting. Analysis of those whom have already voted indicate a significant early strategic and numeric advantage to Obama.

Inevitably, these things run in cycles. And inevitably, the strength of our nation, our government, our way of life, is a more powerful force than any philosophy. As a Democrat, I offer that same caution on the eve of what looks like a tremendous victory if the polls are accurate. Even here in Massachusetts, you have a tough economy, the Wilkerson scandal and a House Speaker at odds with the State Ethics panel.

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Shining the Light on Hess Today

Hess price rises 30 cents in 15 miles

Again, spotlighting the ripoffs that lower Cape residents deal with from their gas stations, today's example is Hess. Go to North St. in Hyannis and Hess would be glad to sell you a gallon of gas for $2.45. Prices have come down about another dime in the Hyannis area since I filled up a couple of days ago. 

For you folks in Harwich and Brewster that head down the Stop & Shop on 137 and stop to fill up at the Hess station there, you can pay THIRTY CENTS MORE per gallon.

And for those of you that applaud our neighbor Christy for showing CITGO the door for their Venezuelan ties, it should be noted that Hess' refinery in the US Virgin Islands is joint effort with Petroleos de Venezuela, owned by the government there.

Get up off your butts and contact them- retailwebmaster@hess.com, and let them know how you feel about it. or you can continue to write about who takes nickel deposits or not.

Cumby update

Update on Cumby's- no surprise, no answer to date. That email again is here.

Their price update- AAA reports 2.45 to 2.46 for the 3 Hyannis locations, as of yesterday. In Brewster and Dennis, you get to pay 2.70 for that same gallon. If I'm on the Board of Selectmen in those towns, I'm calling those operators in to discuss this. And while I don't want to put the onus on the local people, that will sure get the attention up above them.

Shine the spotlight. Do something or nothing ever changes.

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More Gas Price Outrage- Cumberland Farms

Hyannis price = $2.56, Lower Cape price $2.90

According to AAA, you folks down around the Hyannis area are able to roll into Cumberland Farms on Rt 132 and pay about 2.56 a gallon today for regular. Congratulations, that is actually under the state average of just over 2.61.

Well, somewhere between Hyannis and say Brewster and Orleans, something happens to that gas. Something that, according to AAA results in that same gallon costing 2.90! I guess inexplicable CRAP like that would be why the Cape average is still overall 15 cents above the state average.

Somehow, Cumby's and several other stations in Hyannis are able to price in the mid 2 and a half buck range. In Brewster, you can be sure the gas price between Cumby's and Brewster Farms stays in alignment and the Mobile station on 6A in Brewster higher still.

I felt I had to take advantage of Cumby's customer comments area , and it would be great if other folks on the lower Cape did also. I'll let you know what, if any response comes of this.

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What McCain Can Do to Win and All Sorts of 'Rants

Last week's Rasmussen poll on the Kerry - Generic GOP Candidate race was 2-1 for Kerry. Let's call it 60-40 on election day and move along.

I read rumors about Kerry being Sec't of State in an Obama Administration. While I don't really see that, there is the part of me that wants to see it, because of how the political dominos in the state would change.

Deval isn't going anywhere either. In fact, we have just a short time after this election, til we have people positioning to run against Deval. Personally, the strongest candidate I think the GOP could have would be Charles Baker.

Rasmussen polling included numbers on the 3 ballot intiatives. Question 1, the ridiculous idea of eliminating the state income tax was losing 59-33. Aside from removing 40% of state revenue, the rise in debt service would quickly result in our bonds being rated as junk, according to economic consultants, Global Insight.

The question to decriminalize small amounts of marijuana was ahead 51-41. And in all due respect to the opinion of the Harwich police chief, this question takes a realistic approach to small possession. While he may call into question the $30 million dollar savings, based on who made the calculation, let there be no doubt that taking all those cases out of the beleaguered court system will save considerable money. As for Assistant Atty General Tom Kiley notes here, there is no difference in usage between states or countries with rigid laws, versus more liberal ones.

I always find it interesting how we have bars everywhere, yet people get their knickers in a bunch about pot. I say this as a non-user, never wanted it, never will. But I was always less worried about the actions of someone smoking a bone, than a drunk.

Question 3 to ban greyhound racing was winning 50-37. Good. We can do better than be party to what these dogs are put through to race. The industry is dying here anyway, this just speeds the process.

I've been very hard on Sarah Palin, and with good reason. Profoundly unqualified and as a recent poll showed, the primary negative on the McCain campaign. Given that disaster of a campaign, that's saying a lot. But I want to offer a compliment and maybe a glimmer. If, and I don't know if that's possible, but if she doesn't get taken down in the aftermath of this election, she has a future. There are people that connect to her. Ronald Reagan never blew people away with substance and policy positions. She's nowhere at that level as a politician, but if she has a future, it is in that vein.

And by the way, there is nothing McCain can do to win. Colin Powell may have been the final nail in the coffin. That endorsement seems to have strengthened the Obama position with independents. McCain is being outspent, out organized and out stategized. They are reducing their ad buys in places like Colorado and New Hampshire, which were seen as battlegrounds. Their map is shrinking. As Charles Cook notes, no candidate has ever recovered being this far behind, this close to the election.

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McCain Strikes Out Swinging

A deal closer, if it already isn't

Well, McCain had his best half hour at the start, but that was it. Once again, post debate polls showed that Obama won the third and final debate. Most importantly the CNN poll breakdown of independents and the CBS poll of undecideds both favored Obama. If you favored either man, nothing happened that would sway you, it's in the middle that this race is being fought and won by Obama.

McCain is clearly coming across as angry, disdainful, and prone to exaggeration. For example, he accused Obama of voting against Justice Breyer. Slight problem, Breyer was confirmed in 1994. Not the only, but perhaps the most obvious time that McCain displayed his desperation.

Certainly Obama had opportunity to attack McCain, (the Palin question, times when McCain's foreign policy judgement has been suspect) but the strategy was to not go there. Finally, as one of the CNN talking heads mentioned, McCain's closing was about him. It's not about him, it's about, as Obama took opportunity to note, the American people.

Off topic of the debate, but not of the election is how Governor Palin has been noting to audiences now that she was cleared in the release of that report on the firing of her brother in law. I guess we can add the report to the list of things Sarah Palin does not read.

Rumors are in the air also that Colin Powell may endorse soon. The rumors also suggest that it's not for McCain. Rumors can be wrong, but Powell endorsing Obama would be a huge deal; I dare say a deal closer, if it already isn't.

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The Cape Economy- More than Gas Prices

I'm pretty well satisfied that the gas price differential in the summer was best summed up by an economist - they do it  "because they can". Certainly no one has offered any other credible reason why there is such a large gap in the summer, that diminishes as we head towards another winter.

It's just another example of how the Cape Cod economy is well, different than the rest of the state, and by different I mean bad, unsustainable. It really isn't too difficult to figure out, let's take a couple of basic numbers from May '07 (Bureau of Labor Statistics) and you'll see what I mean:

• Barnstable Average Hourly Wage - $19.62
• MA Average Hourly Wage - $23.59
• Barnstable Average Annual Wage - $40,820
• MA Average Annual Wage - $49,070

You can pretty much go job to job, and find that most get paid less on our sandbar than the state average. From there it is simple math in determining why people cannot afford to stay here. In 2006, you needed a family income of just over $100,000 to afford the median family home on the Cape. Actual median family income at the same time was $66,800. Extend the simple math out a bit.... higher prices minus lower wages (and probably benefits also, but that's a guess) and you have the few making out well on the backs of the many. It's not atypical to what is happening in terms of wage disparity between executives and workers. That gap has increased under George Bush.

If, given the current economic times, you don't see that trickle down economics never works, then you never will. Our more immediate concern is the sustainability of Cape Cod in those conditions, and adding in an increasingly older median age. Younger people continue to leave due to cost and limited opportunities.

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The McCain-Palin Backlash

In the past couple of days, the news media has begun to pick up on the hysteria being fostered at McCain and Palin rallies, with the candidates themselves doing nothing but apparently admiring their work. It is a dangerous, dangerous game, one where those far more compatible with McCain than I, are expressing their fears. John Weaver, former chief strategist for McCain puts it this way- "People need to understand, for moral reasons and the protection of our civil society, the differences with Sen. Obama are ideological, based on clear differences on policy and a lack of experience compared to Sen. McCain," Weaver said. "And from a purely practical political vantage point, please find me a swing voter, an undecided independent, or a torn female voter that finds an angry mob mentality attractive."

And David Gergen, former aide to both Democratic and Republican presidents said this last night on CNN's AC360- "I really worry when we get people -- when you get the kind of rhetoric that you're getting at these rallies now," said Gergen. "I think it's really imperative the candidates try to calm people down."

The implosion of McCain is becoming so complete, the Obama campaign doesn't even need to play gotya on William Ayers, by bringing up McCain's long association with G. Gordon Liddy. An article I read recently indicated that virtually all McCain's media buys now are negative, compared to a third of Obama's.

MCCAIN: "Uh, I, I just have to rely on the good judgment of the voters not to buy into these negative attack ads. Sooner or later, people are going to figure out if all you run is negative attack ads you don't have much of a vision for the future or you're not ready to articulate it." [The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer, 2/21/2000]

Mmmhmmm....

Meanwhile, moderate Republicans are jumping ship . And to make the picture complete, even the son of William F. Buckley Jr., has abandoned the McCain campaign. That pretty much leaves just the angry mob as your legacy, John McCain, unless you regain at least a little of the honor you so proudly have spoken of.

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McCain-Obama 2... same as it ever was

No big surprises last night, as both candidates continued to riff on the familiar themes, with occasional minor notes of interests that at least gave the pundits something to talk about. Post debate poll results were consistent with the prior debate. Both CNN's poll of all voters and the CBS poll of undedecided went to Obama, yet again. Both debates were supposed to be on McCain's home field, first on foreign policy, then last night's town hall format. Both times, he has been seen as losing the debate. What's left for him?

That said, it still is the economy that is driving the Obama momentum. Remember in '04, Kerry outperformed Bush in the debates, but got no traction out of that.

Even the McCain campaign has admitted that it cannot win the election if the news focus remains on the economic crisis. That pretty much waves the white flag that they cannot win the war of ideas with Obama on the economy. So when you can't win the war of ideas, I suppose taking your opponents ideas as your own is another option, as McCain did on the idea of buying up people's mortgages. From the Associated Press:

"In fact, at a news conference on Sept. 24, Obama said, "we should consider giving the government the authority to purchase mortgages directly instead of simply purchasing mortgage-backed securities."

Days later, in a news release, he said he would "encourage Treasury to study the option of buying individual mortgages like we did successfully in the 1930s.""

The best part was McCain prefacing this in calling the idea his own, not President Bush's and not Senator Obama's. That is, until you actually check the record. In addition, the bailout plan already gives the Treasury Secretary authority to do just that.

CNN's analysts made a note of McCain's disdain, noting his reference to Obama as "that one" when talking about who voted for the Energy Bill of 2005. Mind you, McCain's claim that it was full of goodies to the oil industry was, incorrect:

Congressional Research Service: The Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPACT05, P.L. 109-58) included several oil and gas tax incentives, providing about $2.6 billion of tax cuts for the oil and gas industry. In addition, EPACT05 provided for $2.9 billion of tax increases on the oil and gas industry, for a net tax increase on the industry of nearly $300 million over 11 years.

There is a month to go in this campaign, which is a long time in politics. The McCain campaign is a mess; viewed as ship with no captain, veering every which way, trying to make to through the storm. They've gone negative, tried to ridiculously co-opt the theme of "change", made a huge blunder with a vp selection that has become a liability and been unable to, as Bush 1 would say, get a grasp of that vision thing.

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